When a country’s population starts shrinking, is it always bad news?

March 15, 2026

Dear readers,

Singapore's total fertility rate has fallen to a historic low of 0.87, a number that has sparked intense debate about what the future holds for the nation.

The population is still growing, but if the fertility rate does not improve, the population is projected to start to shrink "by the early part of the 2040s", according to Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong.

There are countries that are already grappling with shrinking populations, and the consequences are playing out in sobering ways.

In Japan, tens of thousands of elderly people living alone are found dead each year. In Italy, ballooning pension costs are straining public finances. In South Korea, military manpower has thinned as births plunge.

But the economic picture is more complex than simple decline – some shrinking nations are still growing, powered by productivity gains, immigration and higher workforce participation.

In this week's Big Read, we examine what happens when populations contract, whether there are limits to the fixes governments rely on, and what it all means for Singapore as it confronts what leaders call a profound existential challenge.

Yours faithfully,

Yasmine Yahya
Deputy Chief Editor, CNA Digital (TODAY, Lifestyle & Luxury)

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